Tipping point: an instant at which things start to change, a threshold in the evolution of a system beyond which its state or functioning changes qualitatively.
As we have done every year for the last 45 years (1979 was the first vintage offered en primeur by our company), and always at this time of year in early spring, we would like to share with you, as faithfully and honestly as possible, our first impressions of the quality of the vintage we have just tasted, which is currently maturing in barrel and will soon be marketed en primeur.
Before going into the details of the 2024 vintage, it's clear that we are, in more ways than one and in more areas than one, witnessing a tipping point that is ushering in a new era governed by new rules.
In the world of great red wines, we are moving from the period that has prevailed over the last 40 years, when supply was lower than demand - too few bottles produced for a growing number of global customers - to a new period when supply is exceeding demand - many bottles produced for fewer customers (slowdown in various markets such as the UK, China and the USA, falling world consumption, less interest from the younger generation, etc.).
After a period when price records were systematically broken with each new great vintage, we are now witnessing the dawn of a new era in which prices are set to fall back to more or less the level they were at 25 years ago, before the advent of the Chinese market and the speculation that followed.
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Bordeaux 2024: the weather
The first 6 months of 2024 were continually rainy and lacking in sunshine, conditions that were trying for winegrowers as they caused :
• very early (mid-April), intense (on the leaves and then on the bunches) and long (until the beginning of August in the least drained terroirs) downy mildew pressure, which was difficult to combat in May and June on waterlogged soils that prevented tractors from entering the plots.
• in mid-June, flowering was chaotic in cool, damp weather, resulting in significant coulure and millerandage, which mainly affected the Merlot grapes (and therefore yields).
July and August were fine months, with total rainfall above the thirty-year average in terms of heat (maximum temperature of 28.1°C compared with 27.4°C on average, i.e. +0.7°C per day), drought (61mm over the 2 months compared with 105mm on average, i.e. a 42% rainfall deficit) and sunshine (514h compared with 505h on average, i.e. +2% sunshine). Spring's woes were fading and growers were regaining hope.
Autumn arrived without delay in September, which was cooler (-2.2°C), wetter (+47%) and less sunny (-20%) than usual. These ‘oceanic’ conditions disrupted the end of the berry ripening cycle and made harvesting more difficult for everyone, particularly during the rainy week of 21-27 September.
Finally, from 28 September to 16 October, 20 days of fine autumn weather, warm and without excessive rain, meant that the Cabernets (Francs and Sauvignons) could be harvested in good conditions and some lovely botrytised grapes were brought in to Sauternes.
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Bordeaux 2024: a great vintage of fresh, taut dry whites
The steady warmth of the summer of 2024 and the absence of any pronounced drought benefited the Sauvignons and Semillons, and, as expected, 2024 is unquestionably a great vintage for dry white wines.
In 2024, the Sauvignons, which are very expressive, provide floral and fruity aromatic intensity (acacia flower, yellow lemon, lime, etc.), while the Semillons, which are fleshy, tasty (white peach, pear, etc.) and less sweet than usual, provide volume on the palate.
Analysis of the oenological characteristics (source: I.S.V.V., University of Bordeaux) shows that the dry white wines have excellent acid support, with no greenness, and a notably low alcohol content:
• a pH of 3.1, the lowest since 2014 (3.04), ahead of 2017 (3.2) and 2023 (3.2),
• a potential alcohol of 12.3°, on a par with 2014 (12°3), ahead of 2021 (12.9°) and 2019 (13.0°).
Despite ongoing global warming, 2024, along with 2021 and 2023, is the 3rd great vintage since 2020 for dry white wines, the freshest and most tautly structured for a decade, with excellent ageing potential thanks to its acidity.
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Bordeaux 2024: a great vintage of pure, well-balanced sweet whites
At the end of August, the Sauternes white grapes were perfectly healthy and ripe. Unlike recent vintages with dry summers (2022, 2020, 2018, etc.), the botrytis took hold without delay, developing rapidly and evenly from 29 August onwards.
An initial, relatively abundant sorting took place from 12 September, interrupted by rain from 21 to 28 September. This first trie was moderately concentrated, with a good level of acidity, giving freshness and dynamism to the blends.
The 20 days of fine weather that followed (a short Indian summer) dried out and then concentrated the grapes, resulting in an abundant and widespread second trie. This resulted in richer musts, which are at the heart of the quality of the blends.
At the end of October, alternating rain and fine, cool weather produced some additional volumes of good concentration, provided that the grapes were sorted drastically, as grey rot was lurking.
In the end, with their beautiful aromatic purity, moderate concentration and acidity on the finish, the 2024 sweet whites are in line with previous airy vintages, balanced between richness and liveliness, such as 2021, 2019 and 2016.
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Bordeaux 2024: red wines of variable geometry, from very good to insipid
The two weather conditions needed to produce great red wines in Bordeaux are 1°) a hot, sunny summer and 2°) a dry harvest. While the first requirement was met thanks to two fine months in July and August, the second was not met in September.
The week of 21-28 September was very rainy (67.8mm in 7 days, for an average monthly total of 81.2mm), right in the middle of picking the Merlot. At all times, the growers had to call on their experienced staff to adapt to the vagaries of the weather and to sort the harvest as finely as possible at the entrance to the vat room. The calm weather that then prevailed until 16 October meant that the Merlot harvest could be completed more satisfactorily, while the Cabernets (Francs and Sauvignons) could be picked with complete peace of mind.
The essential condition for successful 2024 red wines is to have been able to benefit from an abundance of labour at all times, from March to August in the vineyard, then from September to November in the vat room and the cellar. The second condition is meticulous sorting of the harvest, followed by the systematic elimination of inferior batches during blending before barrelling.
Only these two conditions combined could guarantee good quality red Bordeaux in 2024. As the trade magazine Vitisphère wrote, 'in 2024, Bordeaux winegrowers turned water into wine'.
Unfortunately, these conditions, which are necessarily costly, are reserved for the elite of châteaux, with substantial financial resources and able to accept a year with a deficit, a deficit accentuated by the small volumes produced (see below).
When they are successful, the 2024s are aromatic on the nose and palate, with fresh (red fruit) and expressive fruit, elegant, pleasant and charming. They don't have the power of recent great vintages, but thanks to their moderate alcohol content (usually between 12.5° and 13°) and the barrel ageing that fleshes them out, they are quickly accessible and easy to drink.
This combination of freshness and character is completely new to Bordeaux, but it's in keeping with the times, as it meets current consumer demand for more freshness and less extraction. In 2024, red Bordeaux wines will have more of a Burgundian profile than a Bordeaux one.
Here are a few guidelines from our most recent tastings to help you make your 2024 red Bordeaux choices:
• we have not noted any preference for an appellation or a region, as the quality of the 2024 reds is directly dependent on the determination and hard work of the people involved, even before terroir, exposure or grape variety.
• There will be no hierarchical upheaval in 2024, with the greatest growths at the head of the best terroirs and with the best teams having produced the best wines. On the other hand, in the less prestigious appellations, the only success stories are those of enthusiasts who run their vineyards like vegetable gardens (the list is long, from Clos Manou to Domaine de l'A or Clos Louie), and ‘bourgeois’ or ‘artisan’ crus that are backed by outstanding grands crus classés (such as Ormes de Pez and Lynch-Bages, Pibran and Pichon-Baron, Potensac and Léoville-Las Cases, G d'Estournel and Cos d'Estournel, Montlandrie and L'Église-Clinet, Puyblanquet and La Gaffelière, Moulin Saint-Georges and Ausone, and so on. ).
• This year, we will be limiting our selection of second wines to those that have undergone a truly selective selection process. Without this qualitative skimming, the second wines show the difficulties of the vintage.
• Although the 2024 reds will open up quickly overall, there are also a number of crus which, because of their low pH and blends which are more Cabernet and less Merlot than usual, have good, long, predictable ageing potential (at least 20 years). These are not necessarily the most expensive wines, and you'll find a list of them in the 'Long keeping' section of the Primeurs 2024.
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Bordeaux 2024: a historically low harvest
Since 2000, Bordeaux vineyard production has been steadily declining, under the dual effect of a reduction in the area planted and falling yields:
• the size of the Bordeaux vineyard has been falling steadily for 20 years, from 12,250 ha in 2004 to 9,4700 ha in 2024, a drop of 23%. This reduction in surface area is continuing as part of the plan to grub up 8,000 ha of vines this year.
• Yields have also been falling steadily for 20 years, from 50 hl/ha (average 2001-2005) to 37 hl/ha (average 2021-2024), due to the impact of adverse weather conditions (drought, frost, hail, etc.) and fungal diseases (mainly mildew, but also oidium, botrytis, black rot, etc.).
• Overall, the fall in volumes is impressive, from 6.04 Mhl (average 2001-2005) to 3.76 Mhl (average 2021-2024), i.e. -38%.
Against this backdrop of gradually declining volumes, 2024, at 3.32 Mhl, is the smallest harvest recorded in Gironde since... 1991 (devastating spring frost). Unluckily for Bordeaux, 2024 is both the most expensive vintage to produce and the smallest in terms of volume.
Even before the virulence of downy mildew, it is above all the poor fertilisation of flowers into fruit that explains this drop in yield. However, this drop varies enormously from one Grand Cru Classé to another, depending on the dates on which the antifungal treatments were applied, the responsiveness of the teams and, above all, the luck factor which, give or take a day, may have helped or hindered the flowering.
Here's an example from 5 Médoc châteaux, all certified organic: Latour in Pauillac reports 11.5 hl/ha, while its close neighbour Haut-Bages Libéral is at 30 hl/ha. Claire Villars-Lurton, owner of Haut-Bages Libéral, also owns La Gurgue and Ferrière in Margaux, which yield only 12 hl/ha and 16 hl/ha respectively, while her husband Gonzague Lurton, owner of Durfort-Vivens in Margaux, is at 37 hl/ha...
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Bordeaux 2024: prices bound to fall
Even if 2024 is one of the most expensive vintages to produce, and even if yields are at their lowest for 33 years, the price of 2024 Bordeaux wines will inevitably fall, for a number of reasons:
• the critics' scores and comments on the 2024s will be favourable, but they will certainly be lower than those of the last great Bordeaux vintages (2022, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2016, 2015, etc.), which are filling the cellars and stocks of both French and foreign customers,
• the more or less long-term slowdown in key export markets (England, China, USA, Japan, South Korea, Russia, etc.),
• the worldwide decline in red wine consumption, particularly among the younger generation.
It remains to be seen how far prices will fall. Rumours relayed by British merchants suggest that prices will more or less return to 2014 levels (at the primeur, Château Margaux 2014 was €338.00 a bottle, Cos d'Estournel €113,00, Léoville-Barton €58,80, Giscours €37,20...).
We already have a first positive indication with the crus that have just offered their 2024 en primeur:
- Pontet-Canet 2024 at €84.00 a bottle (€90.00 in 2014),
- Branaire-Ducru 2024 at €37.20 a bottle (€40.60 in 2014),
- Clos Manou 2024 at €20.70 a bottle (€22.00 in 2014).
With most of the grands crus announcing their releases before the end of May, we'll soon be able to tell just how lucid they are.
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